Extended flooding analysis Doel

A full probabilistic check of the Scheldt Sigma dikes and possible inundation depth of the nuclear power plant of Doel is done by IMDC in assignment of Tractebel and Engie. A state of the art methodology is followed to investigate extreme events up till a T 1 million event.

The impact of flooding and dike failure from high water events at the Scheldt river on the nuclear power plant of Doel is checked by performing the state of the art analysis of probabilistic dike failure, overtopping and inundation. Numerous synthetic storms (combination of storm surge and wind) are sampled from the statistical extreme value distributions of the boundary conditions at Vlissingen. They are translated to the location of the nuclear power plant by means of a hydrodynamic model (the Sigma-model), where they generate a storm and wave climate, leading to exceedance probabilities for overtopping and run-up volumes. Next probabilistic dike failure calculations are carried out, and a breaching model is defined. An inundation model is used to compute flooding consequences at the nuclear plant site for a storm with a return period of 1 million years. The analysis is performed for both 2018 as 2035, where sea level rise and climate change is taken into account.

Multivariate copula the statistically describe the extreme conditions

Hydrodynamic model of the Scheldt River to calculate the high water levels

Dike fail calculation of Macro stability in Plaxis (example)


  • Client: Tractebel Engineering nv, Engie
  • Start date: 2018
  • Completion date: 2019